Wizard Daily Report Saturday, 29 March 2025
- Wizard MATRIX Report - Selectives - First Quarterly - Part 2
- Wizard Ratings and Raceday and Matrix and Summary Results
Wizard MATRIX Report - Selectives - First Quarterly Report - Part 2
One of the aims of any rational punter is to be a "selective" bettor. It is not possible to bet race-to-race, meeting-by-meeting, and have any chance of beating the odds.
There are numerous approaches to Selective Betting, and these have been discussed in earlier editions of this Wizard Daily Report. (You can make use of our Archive function to find these discussions.)
In brief, among other things, you can specialise by concentrating on certain locations, by the type and class of race, by distance range, by the age and sex of the runners, by following a certain list of preferred trainers, by focusing on proven successful form patterns, etc, etc.
These, and other similar approaches, presuppose that you have the form-analysis skills, access to all the required information, AND the time available to undertake this task.
It is recognized that for the vast majority of recreational punters (and 99.9% of punters would fall into this category) so the Wizard has created a racing information service that provides an alternative approach to Selective Betting.
This approach is possible because the Wizard provides subscribers with a daily fact-based and user-friendly source of the best quality racing information. Using this "curated" information Wizard developed a number of special-purpose reports. The three key Wizard Reports that facilitate a "selective" approach to "winner finding" are:
- Raceday - The focus here is on identifying which of the Wizard's four ratings assessment's top-rated runners are being best supported overnight and early-morning with corporates.
- Magic - In this report the laser focus is on trainers and highlighting those runners that have a profile which matches a trainer-proven record of success in similar raceday circumstances.
- MATRIX - This report fully integrates ratings/form/betting into a single document and embodies that integrated approach in one rating, MaxR.
Matrix provides Wizard subscribers with an alternative to the hours of work normally required to practice rational "selective betting". That is, Matrix provides the information needed to reduce the number of possible bets, and at the same time, improve the overall strike rate.
(Note: It is suggested that the Matrix (First Four) and Matrix (Abridged) editions are the better options when following a "selective" approach, rather than the Matrix (Full Form) version of the report.)
The key ratings included in Matrix are the Wizard Weight Rating (Wrat) and the Wizard Matrix Rating (MaxR) that integrates the key elements of weight-rating/form/market-moves into one ratings figure.
Here is a MATRIX REPORT (First Four) extract showing a race from Friday, March 28, which will be used to explain the options that feature in the summary results below. (For the purposes of this discussion the following description is limited to the left-hand panel.)
The columns from left to right are:
# - tab number
Horse Name
W - The Wizard Rating (WRat) - 1 is top rated (100 pointer), 2 is second top rater, etc.
Rday - The extract from the Raceday report where the horse is a qualifying runner.
Watch - The extract from the Watch (Morning Movers) report.
Magic - The extract from the Magic (Trainers out-performing) report.
AOdds - The Wizard assessed odds, after scratchings.
AO% - The Wizard assessed odds expressed as a percentage.
EOam - The (average) early race-morning odds offered by wagering operators.
MaxR - A rating based on an analysis of Wizard's ratings/form/market information.
In this race at Toowoomba there was only one runner (Steady Ready) that had been highlighted as a qualifying runner an any of the other three reports; here from all three reports.
Now, on the following table are the results for the top rated WRat and MaxR runners and the results for various conditional combinations, the selective qualifiers, from the Matrix report over the first quarter's operations.
| | Wrat1# | Wrat1% | MaxR# | Maxr% | RWM | RWM | Rday | Rday | Rday | Rday | Magic | Magic | Magic | Magic | R/M | R/M | R/M | R/M |
| | | | | | 2/3# | 2/3% | WR1# | WR1% | MR1# | MR1% | WR1# | WR1% | MR1# | MR1% | WR1# | WR1% | MR1# | MR1% |
| 17/3 - 23/3 | 330 | 29.7% | 330 | 36.4% | 27 | 29.6% | 56 | 39.3% | 51 | 37.3% | 31 | 32.3% | 20 | 40.0% | 20 | 30.0% | 14 | 35.7% |
| 10/3 - 16/3 | 358 | 27.1% | 358 | 34.9% | 33 | 45.5% | 82 | 35.4% | 60 | 50.0% | 22 | 31.8% | 12 | 41.7% | 20 | 35.0% | 12 | 41.7% |
| 3/3 - 9/3 | 291 | 26.8% | 291 | 32.3% | 27 | 29.6% | 56 | 32.1% | 65 | 27.7% | 18 | 27.8% | 15 | 33.3% | 13 | 30.8% | 15 | 33.3% |
| 24/2 - 2/3 | 378 | 23.3% | 378 | 28.6% | 40 | 37.5% | 78 | 32.1% | 77 | 32.5% | 30 | 36.7% | 21 | 47.6% | 27 | 40.7% | 20 | 50.0% |
| 17/2 - 23/2 | 342 | 30.1% | 342 | 32.5% | 43 | 55.8% | 94 | 48.9% | 93 | 48.4% | 36 | 47.2% | 20 | 70.0% | 31 | 54.8% | 19 | 73.7% |
| 10/2 - 16/2 | 332 | 31.6% | 332 | 36.3% | 39 | 35.9% | 80 | 38.8% | 86 | 43.0% | 33 | 30.3% | 23 | 34.8% | 29 | 31.0% | 22 | 31.8% |
| 3/2 - 9/2 | 309 | 23.3% | 309 | 33.7% | 29 | 37.9% | 60 | 35.0% | 65 | 41.5% | 23 | 34.8% | 14 | 50.0% | 19 | 36.8% | 12 | 50.0% |
| 27/1 - 2/2 | 340 | 31.5% | 340 | 28.2% | 34 | 47.1% | 69 | 40.6% | 60 | 35.0% | 27 | 51.9% | 16 | 50.0% | 10 | 40.0% | 22 | 54.5% |
| 20/1 - 26/1 | 320 | 30.0% | 320 | 34.7% | 27 | 51.9% | 66 | 48.5% | 66 | 48.5% | 22 | 54.5% | 12 | 66.7% | 21 | 57.1% | 12 | 66.7% |
| 13/1 - 19/1 | 303 | 25.1% | 303 | 26.7% | 27 | 37.0% | 55 | 32.7% | 54 | 37.0% | 23 | 30.4% | 18 | 33.3% | 22 | 31.8% | 17 | 35.3% |
| 6/1 - 12/1 | 269 | 24.2% | 269 | 23.1% | 21 | 47.6% | 50 | 38.0% | 49 | 40.8% | 17 | 35.5% | 10 | 50.0% | 14 | 42.9% | 10 | 50.0% |
| 30/12 - 5/1 | 400 | 29.5% | 400 | 32.5% | 41 | 41.5% | 90 | 41.1% | 72 | 41.7% | 36 | 36.1% | 16 | 50.0% | 30 | 40.0% | 16 | 50.0% |
| 23/12 - 29/12 | 320 | 27.5% | 320 | 34.8% | 38 | 39.5% | 71 | 38.0% | 63 | 36.5% | 25 | 32.0% | 11 | 45.5% | 23 | 34.8% | 11 | 45.5% |
| 13 weeks | 4292 | 27.0% | 4292 | 32.0% | 426 | 41.5% | 907 | 38.9% | 861 | 40.3% | 343 | 37.3% | 208 | 46.6% | 293 | 40.6% | 193 | 47.2% |
The columns in this table from left to right are:
Wrat1# - the number of Wrat 100 pointers - for all races on the day
Wrat1% - the winning percentage of Wrat 100 pointers
MaxR# - the number of MaxR 100 pointers - for all races on the day
MaxR% - the winning percentage of MaxR 100 pointers
RWM 2/3# - the number of runners that were qualifiers from at least two of the Raceday, Watch, Magic reports
RWM 2/3% - the winning percentage of the runners that were qualifiers from at least two of the Raceday, Watch, Magic reports
Rday WR1# - the number of runners that were qualifiers from Raceday AND were Wrat 100 pointer
Rday WR1% - - the winning percentage of the runners that were qualifiers from Raceday AND were Wrat 100 pointer
Rday MR1# - the number of runners that were qualifiers from Raceday AND were MaxR 100 pointer
Rday MR1% - - the winning percentage of the runners that were qualifiers from Raceday AND were MaxR 100 pointer
Magic WR1# - the number of runners that were qualifiers from Magic AND were Wrat 100 pointer
Magic WR1% - - the winning percentage of the runners that were qualifiers from Magic AND were Wrat 100 pointer
Magic MR1# - the number of runners that were qualifiers from Magic AND were MaxR 100 pointer
Magic MR1% - - the winning percentage of the runners that were qualifiers from Magic AND were MaxR 100 pointer
R/M WR1# - the number of runners that were qualifiers from Raceday AND Magic AND were Wrat 100 pointer
R/M WR1% - - the winning percentage of the runners that were qualifiers from Raceday AND Magic AND were Wrat 100 pointer
R/M MR1# - the number of runners that were qualifiers from Raceday AND Magic AND were MaxR 100 pointer
R/M MR1% - - the winning percentage of the runners that were qualifiers from Raceday AND Magic AND were MaxR 100 pointer
From this table it is clear that these selective options deliver a consistently higher win strike rate than the base Wrat and MaxR ratings. This has been confirmed with this week's results, so far:
| | Wrat1# | Wrat1% | MaxR# | Maxr% | RWM | RWM | Rday | Rday | Rday | Rday | Magic | Magic | Magic | Magic | R/M | R/M | R/M | R/M |
| | | | | | 2/3# | 2/3% | WR1# | WR1% | MR1# | MR1% | WR1# | WR1% | MR1# | MR1% | WR1# | WR1% | MR1# | MR1% |
| Monday | 7 | 71.4% | 7 | 14.3% | 1 | 100.0% | 1 | 100.0% | no qual | no qual | no qual | no qual | no qual | no qual | no qual | no qual | no qual | no qual |
| Tuesday | 22 | 31.8% | 22 | 22.7% | 3 | 66.7% | 6 | 50.0% | 7 | 42.9% | 2 | 100.0% | 2 | 100.0% | 2 | 100.0% | 2 | 100.0% |
| Wednesday | 46 | 39.1% | 46 | 26.1% | 4 | 75.0% | 11 | 81.8% | 10 | 60.0% | 4 | 75.0% | 2 | 100.0% | 3 | 100.0% | 2 | 100.0% |
| Thursday | 29 | 27.6% | 29 | 27.6% | 4 | 75.0% | 8 | 62.5% | 6 | 66.7% | 3 | 66.7% | 2 | 100.0% | 3 | 66.7% | 2 | 100.0% |
| Friday | 54 | 27.8% | 54 | 37.0% | 5 | 60.0% | 11 | 36.4% | 10 | 40.0% | 4 | 50.0% | 2 | 50.0% | 4 | 50.0% | 2 | 50.0% |
There will be more discussion on this topic in Matrix Selectives - Part 3, next week.
There is one basic Matrix report, which is posted to the everyrace website twice on race morning (to allow for scratchings to be processed).
- around 10:30am (incorporating scratchings for NSW, Vic, Tasmania, Queensland, NT)
- around 12 noon (updated for scratchings from W.A.)
There are three variations of the Matrix report.
- Wizard Matrix (First Four)
- Wizard Matrix (Full Field)
- Wizard Matrix (Abridged)
Wizard Ratings and Raceday and Matrix and Summary Results
The full day-by-day results for Wizard (Wrat) top 4 rated runners, the Raceday Qualifier, and the Matrix (MaxR) 100 pointer and the MaxR top-two this week so far. The (4 weeks) column shows the results for the four weeks prior to the current week and the 2023-2024 column shows the WRat results for the full 2023-2024 racing season.
The results summary is now colour coded so that it will be easier for readers to track the relative performance of the Top Rated (blue) and Top-Two Rated (green) ratings options on a daily, and longer term, basis.
| Week ending 30/3 | Mon | Tue | Wed | Thu | Fri | Sat | Sun | Week | 4 weeks | 2023-2024 |
| Wrat one top rated | 71.4% | 31.8% | 39.1% | 27.6% | 27.8% | | | | 25.9% | 26.0% |
| Wrat top-two rated | 71.4% | 36.4% | 56.5% | 41.4% | 46.3% | | | | 44.3% | 42.7% |
| Wrat top-three rated | 71.4% | 59.1% | 65.2% | 51.7% | 64.8% | | | | 57.8% | 57.0% |
| Wrat top-four rated | 71.4% | 68.2% | 73.9% | 65.5% | 75.9% | | | | 69.0% | 67.7% |
| Raceday - one qual. | 80.0% | 27.2% | 38.6% | 32.1% | 34.7% | | | | 29.4% | -- |
| MaxR - Matrix 100 | 14.3% | 22.7% | 26.1% | 27.6% | 37.0% | | | | 32.9% | -- |
| MaxR top-two rated | 42.9% | 45.5% | 50.0% | 48.3% | 57.4% | | | | 49.6% | -- |
The following table shows where the winner of each race run yesterday was rated by WRat, WMod, WHcp, and WExpk and was the qualifier in the Wizard Raceday Report. (Note: The Wrat [W] winner results report on both the top rated and top-two rated winners.) The Raceday Report winners under the Top Rated column are from those races where there was only one Raceday qualifier, and under the Top 2 Rated on the rare occasions where there were two qualifiers in a race.
| Fri 28.03.25 | | Race 1 | Race 2 | Race 3 | Race 4 | Race 5 | Race 6 | Race 7 | Race 8 | Race 9 | Top rated | Top 2 rated |
| | SOT | WMHER | WMHER | WMHER | WMHER | WMHER | WMHER | WMHER | WMHER | WMHER | WMHER | WMHER |
| CRANBOURNE | g4g3 | - - - - 0 | - - - - - | - - - - - | - - - - - | 3 - 2. - - | - - 2. 3 - | 3 3 - - - | 2 3 1 2 1 | | 0 0 1 0 1 | 1 0 3. 1 0 |
| DARWIN | aw | 1 1 3 - 1 | 1 1 1 2. 1 | - 2 3 2. - | - - - 1 - | 1 2 2 3. 1 | | | | | 3 2 1 1 3 | 3 4 2 3. 0 |
| LAUNCESTON | s5g4 | 1 1 2 1 1 | - - - - - | 3 1 3. - 0 | 1 1 1 1 1 | 2 1 2 1 1 | 1 1 3 - 1 | 3 - 1 1 - | 1 2 1 1. 1 | | 4 5 3 5. 5 | 5 6 5 5. 0 |
| MUSWELLBROOK | g4s5 | 1 1 1 1 1 | - - 3. - - | - - - - - | 2 - - - - | 1 - - - 1 | 2 2 1 3. 0 | - - - - - | 1 1 3. 1 1 | | 3 2 2 2 3 | 5 3 2 2 0 |
| TOOWOOMBA | h8h9 | 3 3. 1 - - | 3 - - 2 - | 3 2 - - - | 2 2 1 1 - | - - - - - | - 2 - 2 0 | 1 1 1 1 1 | 3 - - - - | | 1 1 3 2 1 | 2 4 3 4 0 |
| WARRNAMBOOL | s6 | 3 - - - - | 2 2 1 1 - | - 2 - - - | 2 - 2. 3 - | - - - - - | - - - - - | 3 - 3 - - | - - - - - | | 0 0 1 1 - | 2 2 2. 1 0 |
| WELLINGTON | g4 | 1 1 2 - 1 | 2 3 - 3. - | 1 1 2 - 1 | 1 1 3 3. 1 | 2 2 - - - | - - - - - | 1 1 - 3. 1 | 2 1 - - 0 | 3 1 - - - | 4 6 0 0 4 | 7 7 2 0 0 |
| | | | | | | | | | | | Wrat 15 54 | Wrat 25 54 |
| | | | | | | | | | | | 27.80% | 46.30% |
| | | | | | | | | | | | Rday 17 49 | Rday no qual |
| | | | | | | | | | | | 34.70% | |
Header: WMHER = WRat (W), WMod (M), WHcp (H), WExpk (E), Raceday (R).
For a full explanation of the table click: How to read the Wizard Ratings Results