Wizard Daily Report and Research - Sunday, 7 January 2024.
Last start winners - First four favourites
This report looks at the performance of the first four Starting Price (SP) favourites when they ran as a last-start winner.
The results cover two full racing seasons, 2021-2022 and 2022-2023.
The analysis reports on the success rate of the first four last-start-winning favourites in terms of:
Location - this analysis looks at this success rate:
- Overall all locations
- Metropolitan racing
- Provincial racing
- Country racing
Age - the data is further broken down into three age groups:
- 2yo gallopers
- 3yo gallopers
- 4yo+ gallopers
(Note: A further condition has been applied in this analysis - the horse must have raced within the last 1 to 59 days; that is, we are excluding horses resuming from a spell.)
Table 1 - Last start winner - First four SP favourites (2021-2023 seasons)
2yo | 1st fav | Win | win% | 2nd fav | Win | win% | 3rd fav | Win | win% | 4th fav | Win | win% |
Overall | 257 | 116 | 45.1% | 174 | 41 | 23.6% | 117 | 13 | 11.1% | *91 | 3 | 3.3% |
Metropolitan | 167 | 73 | 43.7% | 105 | 27 | 25.7% | *76 | 9 | 11.8% | *67 | 2 | 3.0% |
Provincial | *45 | 19 | 42.2% | *38 | 8 | 21.1% | *25 | 2 | 8.0% | *9 | 0 | 0.0% |
Country | *45 | 24 | 53.5% | *31 | 6 | 19.4% | *16 | 2 | 12.5% | *15 | 1 | 6.7% |
| | | | | | | | | | | | |
3yo | 1st fav | Win | win% | 2nd fav | Win | win% | 3rd fav | Win | win% | 4th fav | Win | win% |
Overall | 1919 | 694 | 36.2% | 1289 | 257 | 19.9% | 981 | 133 | 13.6% | 790 | 88 | 11.1% |
Metropolitan | 764 | 238 | 31.9% | 537 | 119 | 22.2% | 428 | 58 | 13.6% | 323 | 31 | 9.6% |
Provincial | 657 | 250 | 38.1% | 427 | 68 | 15.9% | 329 | 46 | 14.0% | 278 | 32 | 11.5% |
Country | 516 | 206 | 39.9% | 325 | 70 | 21.5% | 224 | 29 | 12.9% | 189 | 25 | 13.2% |
| | | | | | | | | | | | |
4yo+ | 1st fav | Win | win% | 2nd fav | Win | win% | 3rd fav | Win | win% | 4th fav | Win | win% |
Overall | 4565 | 1622 | 35.5% | 3441 | 707 | 20.5% | 2876 | 381 | 13.2% | 2546 | 250 | 9.8% |
Metropolitan | 1446 | 495 | 34.2% | 1049 | 193 | 18.4% | 834 | 114 | 13.7% | 797 | 67 | 8.4% |
Provincial | 1256 | 437 | 34.8% | 979 | 220 | 22.5% | 839 | 110 | 13.1% | 783 | 76 | 9.7% |
Country | 1863 | 690 | 37.0% | 1413 | 294 | 20.8% | 1203 | 157 | 13.1% | 966 | 107 | 11.1% |
* insufficient runners for meaningful result
To provide a frame of reference the following table summarises the win strike rate for the first four favourites, over the last 5 years. Here there are no conditions applied, so the data covers all SP first favourites, just broken down by age and location.
The data is presented in two ways:
- Grouped by age
- Grouped by favouritism
Table 2 - Win strike rates of the first four SP favourites (5 years)
| 2yo | 2yo | 2yo | 2yo | 3yo | 3yo | 3yo | 3yo | 4yo+ | 4yo+ | 4yo+ | 4yo+ |
| 1st fav | 2nd fav | 3rd fav | 4th fav | 1st fav | 2nd fav | 3rd fav | 4th fav | 1st fav | 2nd fav | 3rd fav | 4th fav |
Overall | 38.6% | 20.4% | 12.8% | 9.2% | 37.0% | 20.2% | 13.3% | 9.7% | 32.5% | 19.5% | 13.6% | 9.9% |
Metrop | 36.2% | 21.8% | 11.7% | 8.9% | 34.6% | 19.9% | 13.7% | 9.7% | 31.9% | 18.6% | 12.8% | 9.8% |
Prov | 37.9% | 18.5% | 14.8% | 9.8% | 37.3% | 20.6% | 13.3% | 9.2% | 33.0% | 19.6% | 13.8% | 9.5% |
Country | 43.3% | 21.6% | 11.3% | 8.8% | 37.9% | 19.8% | 13.1% | 10.1% | 32.4% | 19.7% | 13.8% | 10.1% |
| | | | | | | | | | | | |
| | | | | | | | | | | | |
| 2yo | 3yo | 4yo+ | 2yo | 3yo | 4yo+ | 2yo | 3yo | 4yo+ | 2yo | 3yo | 4yo+ |
| 1st fav | 1st fav | 1st fav | 2nd fav | 2nd fav | 2nd fav | 3rd fav | 3rd fav | 3rd fav | 4th fav | 4th fav | 4th fav |
Overall | 38.6% | 37.0% | 32.5% | 20.4% | 20.2% | 19.5% | 12.8% | 13.3% | 13.6% | 9.2% | 9.7% | 9.9% |
Metrop | 36.2% | 34.6% | 31.9% | 21.8% | 19.9% | 18.6% | 11.7% | 13.7% | 12.8% | 8.9% | 9.7% | 9.8% |
Prov | 37.9% | 37.3% | 33.0% | 18.5% | 20.6% | 19.6% | 14.8% | 13.3% | 13.8% | 9.8% | 9.2% | 9.5% |
Country | 43.3% | 37.9% | 32.4% | 21.6% | 19.8% | 19.7% | 11.3% | 13.1% | 13.8% | 8.8% | 10.1% | 10.1% |
Some take-aways about the presence of last-start winning form:
- For 4yo+ gallopers, positive impact with 1st and 2nd favourites; mixed with 3rd and 4th.
- For 3yo's, generally positive with the 1st and 4th favourites; mixed with 2nd and 3rd favourites.
- Win strike rates are generally higher for 3yo gallopers compared to 4yo+.
Warren - Wiz-Ed
If you have any comment or suggestions about the Wizard Daily articles please feel free to drop me a line at:
Wiz-Ed@everyrace.com