Warren Block's Daily Report - Thursday, 29 May 2025
- The Wizard Expected Peak rating - where and why - Thousand $ dividends
- Matrix day-by-day results for Thursday and Friday racing
- Wizard Freebie - Wizard Matrix Report
- Wizard Ratings, Raceday, Matrix, and Selectives Results
The Wizard Expected Peak rating - where and why - Thousand $ dividends
After I posted in this Daily Report about including the Wizard Expected Peak top-rater in exotic bet combinations I had some queries as to where this rating could be found. The Wizard reports I would recommend are:
Where: The Wizard Essentials report
The Expected Peak rating and ranking are in the WExPk column.
Also, there is supplementary information in the next ExPk column. (The Expected Peak rating can be drawn from either the current preparation or the previous preparation. To make it easier to see where the horse has recorded its relevant past peak rating, this Essentials column shows whether the run was from the current (C) preparation or from its previous preparation (1) and the run from a spell in which it occurred.)
Why: The Wizard WExPk (expected peak) analysis is particularly valuable as it is an assessment of the horse on its best (weight for age adjusted) form from its previous preparation as well as its current preparation. It is looking for a horse that can win if it runs to its proven best form.
Given the nature of this assessment, and the possibility of finding top rated runners off older form, and therefore not currently in the public eye, it is no surprise to see the overall win strike rate lower than that of the other Wizard assessments which concentrate on current form. The long-term win strike rate for WExPk is around 15%. The odds range of WExPk winners are skewed to longer odds, with the longest priced WExPk 100 pointer winners paying over $50.00.
It is the presence of the longer-priced WExPk runners in successful exotic combinations that can play an important role in profitable exotics betting.
And dont forget that Wizard has the great Multibet option (use the tab on the Race Field screen to access) that allows you to quickly customize your exotic bet calculations.
Here is an example from Sale yesterday which again illustrates the value of including the Expected Peak top-rated runners at the longer odds in the combinations.
The Wizard Multibet combination here has been set up as:
WRat top-two rated: 1st, 2nd, 3rd, and 4th spots
WRat top-four rated: 2nd, 3rd, and 4th spots
WRat top-six rated: 3rd, and 4th spots
WExPk top-rated: 2nd, 3rd, and 4th spots
So, with a First-Four exotic, we have only the top-two WRat in the 1,2,3,4 spots (they are winning around 45% of races), the top-four WRat for 2,3,4 spots, the top-six WRat in 3,4 spots and, when the WExPk top-rated are on offer at double figures they feature in the 2,3,4 spots. Whether to include the top-rated WExPk runner in the win spot is a matter of race-by-race judgement, but Flexibet does provide for this possibility.
Yesterday, in race 6 at Sale this Wizard-based strategy delivered with an Expected Peak top rater (Juice Box) running fourth, when showing $75.00 final win dividend on the NSW Tab.
As with all wagering, this Wizard multibet strategy is not a race-by-race option, and requires patience and care in choosing the right races. But, that said, the strategy is one that has the potential to deliver the outsized returns that are a key to successful exotics wagering.
The Flexibet option offered by wagering operators allows us to tailor our outlay in a way that makes it possible for us to select and bet the combinations that do pay these out-sized returns.
Where - The Wizard Matrix report
In the WMHER you will find each runner's ranking on Wizard's WRat, WMod, WHcp, and WExPk ratings and the Raceday Report qualifier. The WExPk ranking is the fourth (from the left) of these rankings.
Where - The Wizard Plus Panel report
You access the Plus Panel via the Race Fields screen by clicking on the Plus Panel tab. The WExPk 100 pointers are listed here.
Matrix day-by-day results for Thursday and Friday racing
The tables show the results for the past eight weeks for the day on which racing occurred. So, today being Thursday, this Matrix DOW (Day of Week) report covers the past eight Thursday and Friday results. The day-after results are included so that they are available on race-eve, rather than only on race morning.
(The daily Matrix report aims to assist subscribers contain the number of bets to manageable proportions and improve the strike rate. The report is posted to our website between 10:30am and 10:45am each day with an update at 12 noon.)
The Wizard Matrix Report
Today we post an extract from a Wizard Matrix Report. All Wizard reports for this, and other meetings run today, are now available to subscribers.
Click for an explanation of the Matrix report here.
Click here for an explanation of Selectives from Matrix.
Wizard Ratings, Raceday, Matrix, and Selectives results
We publish these full results daily so that subscribers can see the results of the Wizard's ratings options, and Report-content, and thereby formulate a selecting and betting strategy that suits them individually. The Wizard ratings should not be seen as "tips", rather as objective assessments that can be used to inform one's own judgement as to the relative chances of the runners in a race.
The full day-by-day results for Wizard (Wrat) top 4 rated runners, the Raceday Qualifier, and the Matrix (MaxR) 100 pointer, the MaxR top-two, the Matrix *EOam-MaxR100 qualifier, the Matrix W1-MaxR100 qualifier, and the Matrix W1+*EO+MaxR100 qualifier. The dated columns show the overall results for last week and the last four weeks. The 2023-2024 column shows the WRat results for the full 2023-2024 racing season. This results summary is colour coded so that it is easier for readers to track the relative performance of the Top Rated (blue) and Top-Two Rated (green) ratings options on a daily, and longer term, basis. The best overall qualifier (yellow) is also highlighted.
The following table shows this week's results of alternative options with respect to possible Matrix Selectives combinations, as well as weekly summaries. These combinations are accessible via the Wizard MATRIX report which is posted to our website between 10:30am and 10:45am each day.
(Key: The first of the two columns for each Selective combination shows number of qualifying races and the second column shows the strike rate. Headings: RWM is Raceday,Watch,Magic, RWM 2/3 means two or three qualifying, Rday is Raceday report qualifier , Magic is Magic report qualifier, R/M is Raceday and Magic, WR1 is Wrat 100, MR1 is MaxR 100.)
The following table shows where the winner of each race run yesterday was rated by WRat, WMod, WHcp, and WExpk and was the qualifier in the Wizard Raceday Report. (Note: The Wrat [W] winner results report on both the top rated and top-two rated winners.) The Raceday Report winners under the Top Rated column are from those races where there was only one Raceday qualifier, and under the Top 2 Rated on the rare occasions where there were two qualifiers in a race.
Header: WMHER = WRat (W), WMod (M), WHcp (H), WExpk (E), Raceday (R).
For a full explanation of the table click: How to read the Wizard Ratings Results