BETTING ESSENTIALS - GT says: "There are many different angles and there is so much information."
Warren Block's Daily Report - Saturday, 4 April 2026
- Betting Essentials - Results Update and Expansion (Part 3)
- Wizard Freebie - Wizard What-IF Report Updated now at 10:30am
- Matrix day-by-day results for Saturday and Sunday racing
- Wizard Ratings, Raceday, Matrix, and Selectives Results
IMPORTANT - What-IF race morning update now posted at 10:30am - was 9:30am - allows for more complete scratchings update.
Betting Essentials - Results Update and Expansion (Part 3)
In Part 2 of this series I discussed using either the Wizard WRat rating or the Wizard MaxR rating with a focus on backing two runners in a race, and treating those transactions as a single bet.
The differing impact is a consequence of the odds profile of the top rated runners of each methodology. Because the WRat is based on fundamentals and ignores current market information the odds range of the top two rated WRat horses tends to be wider than that of the top two MaxR rated runners that reflect market sentiment.
First, looking at win strike rates of some Wizard-based two-horse options.
The first four options are currently reported on daily. The bottom two are what happens when the two Wizard Selectives options are paired with the Wizard WRat 2 runner, effectively as a single wager, as described in Betting Essentials. The difference in win strike rate is significant.
A second consideration centres on which horse to pair with a Top Rater. The obvious contender is the Wrat 2 runner. However, an alternative higher risk/reward option might be the Wizard Expected Park top rater as the "back-up" runner.
In the Big Odds weekly summary of results published in this report every Monday it is not uncommon to see WRat second top raters deliver double figure odds winners, even up to 50/1. What is also true is that there are even longer odds winners that have been top-rated by the Wizard Expected Peak rating (WExpk).
Last week, for example, the longer odds WExpk winners were:
The differential resulting from longer odds winners is relevant when it comes to betting bank building and recovery during a drawdown period.
Tomorrow, this discussion will continue.
Wizard Freebie - Wizard What-IF Report
The Wizard What-IF report has more than one application. It can help to identify the horse/s best suited in a race and possessing the more reliable form. Also, it can help to differentiate between races that represent a positive betting opportunity from those whose fields are below par in terms of the revealed form. The What-IF report is available with the first upload of Wizard's race files and is then updated on race morning
The What-IF report profiles the six top rated Wizard WRat runners in each race. The data in the report shows the record of each horse when it started at 10/1 or less, and/or won at longer odds, in a race in the distance range.
In terms of horse suitability, What-IF focuses on fitness and form. It does this through indicators that are relevant to these form factors. With respect to reliability, included in the FITNESS FORM category are each runner's Wizard Filter and Negatives scores. As these scores are determined by the record of the horse when running under similar conditions, they are a particularly relevant indicator of how well, and how consistently, it has performed over time. The higher the number, the better the score, with a Filter score of +7 being a genuinely positive assessment in terms of runner reliability.
The lower section of the What-IF report addresses the issue of uncertainty, by considering a range of "unknown" factors, and how versatile the runner is, and how adaptable it is likely to be under different race conditions.
For selective bettors a suggested approach is to concentrate on those races where one of the top two WRat runners has a Filter score of +7 or more and the other has a score of zero or better (not negative). This approach means the focus is on only those races where the top two rated runners are assessed as suitably placed and reliable. This approach aims to reduce the degree of risk and uncertainty when choosing races as possible wagering opportunities and deciding on final selections.
An extract from one of today's meetings:
Click here or a full explanation of the Wizard What-If report.
Matrix day-by-day results for Saturday and Sunday racing
The tables show the results for the past eight weeks for the day on which racing occurred. So, today being Saturday, this Matrix DOW (Day of Week) report covers the past eight Saturday and Sunday results. The day-after results are included so that they are available on race-eve, rather than only on race morning.
(The daily Matrix report aims to assist subscribers contain the number of bets to manageable proportions and improve the strike rate. The report is posted to our website between 10:30am and 10:45am each day with an update at 12 noon.)
Wizard Ratings, Raceday, Matrix, and Selectives results
We publish these full results daily so that subscribers can see the results of the Wizard's ratings options, and Report-content, and thereby formulate a selecting and betting strategy that suits them individually. The Wizard ratings should not be seen as "tips", rather as objective assessments that can be used to inform one's own judgement as to the relative chances of the runners in a race.
The full day-by-day results for Wizard (Wrat) top 4 rated runners, the Raceday Qualifier, and the Matrix (MaxR) 100 pointer, the MaxR top-two, the What-IF top-two Filtered, together with the Matrix W1+MaxR100 Selective qualifier, and the Matrix W1+*EO+MaxR100 Selective qualifier. Also included are the overall results for last week and the last four weeks. The 2024-2025 column shows the WRat results for the full racing season.
This results summary is colour coded so that it is easier for readers to track the relative performance of the Top Rated (blue) and Top-Two Rated (green) ratings options on a daily, and longer term, basis. The best overall qualifier (yellow) is highlighted. Also, the single runner options are grouped separately, as are the two-horse and multi-horse options results, again to make comparisons easier.
The following table shows this week's results of alternative options with respect to possible Matrix Selectives combinations, as well as weekly summaries. These combinations are accessible via the Wizard MATRIX report which is posted to our website between 10:30am and 10:45am each day.
(Key: The first of the two columns for each Selective combination shows number of qualifying races and the second column shows the strike rate. Headings: RWM is Raceday,Watch,Magic, RWM 2/3 means two or three qualifying, Rday is Raceday report qualifier , Magic is Magic report qualifier, R/M is Raceday and Magic, WR1 is Wrat 100, MR1 is MaxR 100.)
The following table shows where the winner of each race run yesterday was rated by WRat, WMod, WHcp, and WExpk and was the qualifier in the Wizard Raceday Report. (Note: The Wrat [W] winner results report on both the top rated and top-two rated winners.) The Raceday Report winners under the Top Rated column are from those races where there was only one Raceday qualifier, and under the Top 2 Rated on the rare occasions where there were two qualifiers in a race.
Header: WMHER = WRat (W), WMod (M), WHcp (H), WExpk (E), Raceday (R).
For a full explanation of the table click: How to read the Wizard Ratings Results